No escaping major Sheffield Wednesday shortfall that has set up scramble in final three matches

The Owls have roared back from multiple setbacks throughout the campaign to leave themselves just a single point from the safety spots heading into their final three matches. A bright performance at home to Stoke City on Saturday left some scratching their heads at an opportunity lost - Wednesday outperformed the Potters in just about every meaningful metric but spurned chances to win the game.

A wave of early opportunities to score in the first half came and went before Liam Palmer’s well-struck second half effort was cancelled out by Luke Cundle’s strike. It was Stoke’s second chance of the clash.

Wednesday’s ‘xG to actual goals difference’ measures the number of goals they have scored across the course of the league season against the quality of chances created. The Owls are operating at -0.22. Ironically, Stoke (-0.32) are one of only two teams in the division more wasteful than the Owls, with Wednesday’s last day opponents Sunderland performing at an xG v actual of -0.31.

As per the Championship xG points table - which calculates the number of points expected by teams based on which side created the better chances in each match - Wednesday’s profligacy in front of goal has cost them eight points across the course of the season. In contrast, Preston North End have created fewer quality chances throughout the season than Wednesday (0.89 v 1.04) but have 20 more points and find themselves 10th in the table.

Of the Wednesday players to have taken more than 25 shots in the league season only Marvin Johnson (1.25) and Djeidi Gassama (0.38) have a positive ‘xG v actual’, meaning only two players have scored more goals than the quality of chances presented.

“It is important that we have those chances,” Owls boss Danny Röhl said. “But if we don't miss those chances, we are not in this situation. When you look at four home games, Cardiff, Watford, Swansea and today. We took just three points and you look - we were better and at home. It makes no sense to think back at what could be now. We try it, we keep going and we will see where we will be at the end.”