The numbers that suggest Sheffield Wednesday are well on track for automatic promotion

Not that the first half of the season has gone badly – with the Owls lying second in League One, and in the automatic promotion places which would avoid the lottery of the play-offs if maintained to the end of the season.

Wednesday return to league action this weekend, looking to extend their 18-match unbeaten run with victory at a Wycombe Wanderers side lying seventh and just outside the play-offs. But with an eight-point gap between third and fourth in the division, the Owls are currently in a three-horse race with Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town for the two places that would avoid any potential play-off heartbreak.

History is no guarantee to what the future holds, but an analysis of the stats from previous seasons could guide us towards the destination Wednesday need to reach – in terms of points, goals for and goals against – to achieve their automatic promotion target.

Comparison between League One this season and the last 10

Similarities have been drawn between the current League One top three and last season’s battle when Wigan Athletic (93 points), Rotherham United (90 points), and MK Dons (89 points) pushed each other all the way. Taking this as the benchmark it is fair to assume that the Owls would need to at least equal Rotherham’s 90-point tally - 46 points from 23 games puts them on track to surpass that if they maintain their current form, though.

Looking back over the last ten seasons, the average points tally required to achieve a second-place finish in League One has been 88 and the average for the champions, 94. These averages include a points-per-game adjustment for the 2019-20 season curtailed by Covid-19. Of course, there are exceptions. Brentford (94 pts) in 2013/14 and Blackburn Rovers (96 pts) in 2017/18 exceeded the second-place average, whereas AFC Bournemouth (83 pts) in 2012/13 and Burton Albion (85pts) in 2015/16 were automatically promoted in second place with a significantly lower than average points tally.

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Fans will hope that Wednesday can secure promotion without the need for superior goal difference, but an analysis at this stage would suggest Wednesday are on track. The Owls have been prolific in front of goal having signed last season’s League One Golden Boot winner Michael Smith from Rotherham in the close season, adding further firepower to an attack that already included Lee Gregory, with 17 goals last time out. They are on their way to matching the League One ‘Goals For’ average for teams achieving automatic promotion over the past ten seasons – 76 goals being the average for the second-placed and 83 the average for the first-placed automatically promoted teams.

At the halfway point of the season (23 games) Wednesday had scored 38 goals, after two further games that tally is now 45. The additional much-welcome return to goal-scoring form of Josh Windass in the last two matches also bodes well for the remainder of the season.

On track for goals against

A highlight of the season has been the 14 clean sheets achieved in League One so far. The arrival of experienced stopper, and League One Golden Glove winner, David Stockdale in addition to a defence bolstered by the experienced Ben Heneghan, Michael Ihiekwe and Reece James plus the youthful class of the Arsenal academy graduate Mark McGuinness means that ‘Goals Against’ has not been a problem for the Darren Moore’s promotion chasing Owls.

The 18 goals conceded after 23 games placed the Owls as the second best defence only to Derby County, interestingly not in the top three, but lying fourth, eight points adrift of third placed Ipswich Town. An indication possibly that being the best on one measure of success does not always get you where you want to be?

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The League One average over the past ten seasons has been 42 goals conceded for the second-placed team and 40 goals conceded for the champions. Wednesday are on track to at least beat the best average defensive record for automatically promoted teams but will need many more clean sheets to beat the 29 conceded by Wigan Athletic in winning the League One title back in 2017/18

All the indicators are positive and suggest that Wednesday are on track to achieve automatic promotion – according to the stats. However, key to maintaining the success of the first half of the season will be the hopeful return of injured players, keeping key players fit and positive dealings in the January transfer window – ins and outs. Then, you never know, the Owls could be celebrating their first league title since 1958.