Lies, damned lies and statistics - how the numbers tell a different story of Sheffield Wednesday's 3-1 defeat to Derby County

And the statistics from Sheffield Wednesday’s 3-1 home defeat to Derby County on Saturday are a brazen reversal of what the numbers suggest should have happened on a disappointing afternoon for the Owls.

Because from the seventh minute, when the impressive Tom Lawrence opened the scoring for the Rams courtesy of a Kieran Lee deflection, the away side ran the show at Hillsborough.

Derby were more incisive, more intelligent and more robust on an afternoon that proves football data can always only tell part of the story – or in Saturday’s case, a complete fable.

Because the xG numbers – which calculate an ‘expected goals’ tally based on the quality of chances produced by both sides – had Wednesday ahead by quite a distance.

On those figures Wednesday ‘should have’ scored 1.42 goals – the biggest chances coming in the form of Josh Windass’ goal and Jacob Murphy’s 55th minute left-foot chance, which had a 27 per cent chance of finding the net.

Lawrence’s opener had a thee per cent chance of going in – of course helped by that Lee ricochet – but his 24th minute second was just as unlikely, Dawson getting a hand on a shot with four per cent xG rating.

Jason Knight’s fine finish for Derby’s third, struck seconds before the half-hour mark, was the best chance of the three, but again only had a five per cent chance of success – meaning just one in 20 of shots from that area of the pitch result in a goal.

Does this render Wednesday unlucky? You’d have to think not. Derby squandered two high-quality chances, Lawrence’s 33 per cent xG chance thwarted by Dawson on 16 minutes and Martyn Waghorn denied with a 30 per cent chance at the end of the first half. It could have been more.

And that’s not all – Wednesday led Derby in terms of shots, passes, passes in the attacking third, take-ons, crosses, tackles and interceptions.

The only tally that mattered of course, was the goals and few would argue Derby’s dominance. Lies, damned lies and statistics.