Sheffield Wednesday points deduction: How many more points do Owls need to stay in the Championship after EFL charge?

The Owls’ downturn in league form since Christmas prompted a slide down the table that sees them eight points and seven places clear of the relegation places with eight matches to play.

Saturday’s encouraging performance in a late 1-1 draw took them to a total of 49 points in their 38 matches and kept that eight-point buffer intact as Charlton leapfrogged their way out of the relegation spots at the expense of nosediving Hull City.

The case, originally scheduled for July, has reportedly been brought forward after Championship clubs warned they would take legal action should punishment in the event of any guilty finding not be enacted this season. Likely punishments in the event of a guilty finding would include a points deduction.

So how many points do they need?

There’s no exact science to it, especially given the return from a three-month break having thrown form out of the window, but a look at the numbers from relegation battles over the past 10 seasons give an indication of what sort of points total Wednesday should be aiming at even if a points deduction is brought in.

On average, a figure of 45 points would see any team stay up, though after 38 games Hull have more points than any other third-bottom team in the decade, aside from Peterborough’s anomaly 38-game total of 55 points in 2012/13.

A median average of 8.5 points are added to the third-bottom relegation watershed between the 39th game and the end of the season. On this basis, the target for survival would be 50 points, meaning Wednesday would have to earn just one more point, plus the sum of their points deduction – whatever that may be. They have 24 points to play for.

The 2012/13 season again offers an anomaly on this though and in terms of the numbers is perhaps the closest comparison Wednesday have in terms of how the divisions could shape up.

What’s so similar about the 2012/13 season?

Taking that season out of the equation, the points difference between the third relegation place and the sixth playoff spot over the last 10 years has been, on average, 33 points.

This stage of the 2012/13 season saw a similar points difference of just 14 points between the relegation spots and the playoffs and is far more in-line with the current season’s deficit of 16 points between third-bottom Hull, on 41 points, and sixth-placed Preston on 57.

This would suggest the leagues are closer in terms of competitiveness between the teams at the top and the bottom than in normal seasons and that points to those nearer the bottom of the table may be more attainable.

On the basis of the 13-point gain added to the relegation watershed in 2012/13 between gameweek 38 and the end of the season, Wednesday would need a further six points plus the balance of any points deduction to stay in the division.

It’s going to be a nervy week.

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